Well, June 23rd was certainly… eventful.
In brief, the commander/financier of the Wagner Private Military Company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has declared his intention to overthrow the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense (Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, the Commander of the Russian Armed Forces). This coup has now extended to the entire Russian government as President Vladimir Putin, his United Russia Party, and the Communist Party of Russia have all denounced Prigozhin. However, Prigozhin has taken control of a major city, Rostov-on-Don (population 1.1 million) and has had numerous Russian army forces defect to his cause.
Thus, Wagner has made the declaration, via the Telegram social media ap:
“Putin made the wrong choice. This is worse for him. Soon we will have a new president.”
At this point there are essentially two options. Either Prigozhin pulls off a relatively bloodless overthrow of the Russian Government, in which case this situation may be classified as a coup, or Putin and Shoigu make a definitive attempt to fight Prigozhin, in which case this then turns into the Second Russian Civil War.
There’s a lot to talk about here, but I’d like to begin with two historical antidotes, both of which are relevant to this situation.
First, let’s talk about the state of the Russian Imperial Army in 1917. 1917 was near the end of World War I, which would finish in 1918. The Eastern Front had seen a conflict every bit as brutal as the trench battles of the Western Front, and one where the Russian Army had consistently faced abuse after abuse from its own poor logistics and . The situation had become so extreme that a coup was attempted by a part of the officer corp. It failed, however it opened the door for the Communists to exploit the situation in the months that followed. As riots and protests became ever more omnipresent, the Tsar attempted to have his personal troops, the Russian Imperial Guard, suppress the riots. However, the Russian Imperial Guard had suffered the same sort of abuses as the rest of the army, having gone unpaid for months. Thus, instead of the supposedly reliable troops suppressing the revolution, instead they joined it.
A short while later, the Russian Civil War began, a war which saw the previously united empire splinter into numerous ethnic republics and warring factions, most prominently the White (conservative/fascistic) and Red (socialist/communist) factions. This situation resulted, at last, in the establishment of the Union of Socialist Soviet Republics, the USSR, which was essentially a compromise between the ideals of the ethno-republic movements and the desire for a centralized communist government.
It is interesting, therefore, that in Putin’s most recent speech from June 24th, regarding this mass mutiny, he choose to call back to the events of 1917, which he regards as having stolen the victory from Russia in World War One.
The second, and perhaps ironic example, is that of Heinrich Himmler, the leader of the German SS during World War 2. Towards the end of 1943, as the war was clearly turning against Germany, Heinrich Himmler was attempting to reform himself as something of a moderate voice. For example, he had a notable pro-Slavic position compared to most of the Nazi hierarchy and he was trying to portray himself as more reasonable than Hitler. In the popular mind, of course, this is overshadowed by his antisemitism, which was somewhat more intense than Hitler’s own. Regardless, the idea that formed in Himmler’s mind, as of 1944, was that if he could overthrow Hitler and negotiate with the Western Allies, he could turn the full force of Germany’s military to the east in order to defeat the Soviet Union. To this end, he attempted to conduct secret negotiations with the allies, but nothing came of these as Germany’s position worsened as the allies drew near to the German border. By the end, Himmler was dismissed from his position as leader of the SS by Hitler and cast out as Hitler’s chosen successor. Himmler would later commit suicide, via cyanide capsules, while a prisoner of the allies.
His post-war legacy is, of course, a rather interesting example of a social mythology. In order to boost the morale of both the Eastern German Government and the Western German Government, a scapegoat was needed. Both claimed that the Nazi party was an illegitimate form of government and that they were the true successor states of the German Republic. And given that both were soon rebuilding their militaries, often under the supervision of old Wehrmacht officers, they needed a mythology about the war. Thus the SS were portrayed as the perpetrators of all of the various German atrocities during the war, contrasted with the stoic nobility of the Wehrmacht itself. This is, of course, fundamentally a fiction, even given that the SS were somewhat more prone to engage in massacres and genocidal acts.
First, let’s talk about the characters of this game.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Financier and Commander of Wagner, is something between a crime lord and an oligarch. Under his leadership, the Wagner group was essentially a component of the Russian Army that could be dispatched across the world to do Russia’s dirty work, while also having a degree of separation between them and the Russian state itself. As one can imagine, he has gotten quite wealthy engaging in this sort of mercenary work, acquiring numerous mines and other industrial operations across Africa most prominently. He remained in the shadows and was only revealed as the mastermind behind Wagner during the start of the Ukraine War.
Wagner was contracted to participate in the Ukraine War for one particular reason. Wagner had numerous trained special forces soldiers, typically substantially better equipped, trained, and motivated compared to the standard Russian soldiers (Wagner forces usually being drawn from veteran soldiers with Russian nationalist leanings). In particular, these were forces that were used to operating as assault infantry, as they’d been used frequently in Syria, and because of the heavy vehicle focus of the initial Russian force, assault infantry were in short supply. Thus, Wagner was contracted and given the opportunity to recruit numerous criminals from the Russian prison system, the exact number estimated to be in the range of 30,000-60,000, augmenting an existing force of 15,000-20,000 mercenaries. These criminals were typically exploited as essentially recon troops, where they’d assault the Ukrainian lines at Bakhmut City en masse, often taking heavy casualties, in order to expose weak points in the lines. These weak points were then assaulted by the elite Wagner forces, frequently at night where their technological superiority over Ukrainian forces could be best utilized. Wagner was additionally given a massive amount of artillery supply, some armored vehicles, and even some aircraft to conduct their operation.
The war in Bakhmut was a massive grind, with the majority of the united Wagner forces being eliminated (the group is estimated to have taken 60-80% losses), however they were able to at last successfully capture the city. However, the road to capturing Bakhmut was difficult and a major fracture opened between Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense, led by Sergei Shoigu. He frequently accused Shoigu of strangling the supplies that he was given, all so that Shoigu could claim the victory of Wagner Group in Bakhmut. A few days after Bakhmut was captured in May 2023, Prigozhin began to withdraw Wagner from the front-lines, an act that sparked even more controversy. In some cases, forces loyal to the Ministry of Defense blocked Wagner from leaving, thus creating even more tension between the groups. This came to a boiling point with two incidents. The first is that the commander of the 72nd Brigade, Lieutenant Colonel Roman Venevitin, was captured and beaten up by Wagner forces, who thought he had commanded his forces poorly and that their unorderly retreat had exposed Wagner’s flanks, additionally accusing his of laying mines of the roads behind Wagner positions. The commander then, after being released from Wagner’s clutches, formally complained to the Ministry of Defense about the anarchic and unlawful actions of Wagner.
Secondly, the response of the Ministry of Defense was to order that all PMC forces had to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. It should be noted that private military companies are technically illegal in Russia, however this is a law that has been flaunted by numerous oligarchs. At first it was a matter of deniability, the Russian State could not be blamed for the acts of Wagner because PMCs were illegal in Russia, and hence Wagner was illegal in Russia. Now, however, a number of other PMCs have been formed, including Patriot, which Sergei Shoigu partially owns, and the Gazprom Corporation’s PMC force. Prigozhin refused to place Wagner under the Ministry of Defense, even though his actions were increasingly called illegal And so this was the essential situation between the groups prior to June 23rd, 2023. Wagner was off the front lines and the situation was
Aiding Prigozhin in Wagner are a number of other officers, most prominently the hardcore Russian nationalist Colonel Dmitry Utkin (the original military commander of the group whose callsign is Wagner), and General Mikhail Mizintsev, who serves as Wagner’s Deputy Commander.
As for the Ministry of Defense, Sergei Shoigu is the long-standing leader of the Ministry of Defense, regarded, importantly, as Putin’s current successor. Like most of the people Putin surrounds himself with, he’s generally reliable from the perspective of loyalty, but also corrupt and not particularly good at his job.
General Valery Gerasimov, while Shoigu’s subordinate, is perhaps somewhat of a more interesting character. He is the architect of the current hybrid warfare strategy of the Russian Federation against the West, which emphasizes the importance of creating dissent and social dissolution as weapons of war. Like Shoigu, he is regarded as generally reliable in terms of his loyalty.
President Putin likely needs no introduction to you. He’s best described currently as less of a strong man and more the manager of a frequently quarrelling court, a court that has now broken apart into factions.
The Events Of June 23-24, 2023
– Prigozhin claims that the Ministry of Defense intentionally subjected a Wagner position to artillery and rocket fire, resulting in several hundred casualties, as a start to an organized purge of Wagner forces.
– About this same time, the Ministry of Defense has a team of spetsnaz raid the Wagner HQ in St. Petersburg. Prigozhin was supposedly there the day before, however he had since left, as apparently had other vital personnel.
– Prigozhin declares that he is going to initiate a march on Moscow, with a force of 25,000 Wagner soldiers and over 400 armored vehicles. At this point, he is located with his forces in the south-east of Ukraine with his main forces.
– Prigozhin accuses the Ministry of Defense of lying about the reasons for the invasion of Ukraine, claiming that it was motivated by oligarchs trying to seize riches rather than out of humanitarian ideals. He also accuses them of cronyism, corruption, incompetence, and also of lying about the scale of Russian losses in Ukraine (which he says exceeded 100,000, in comparison to the 25,000 claimed by the Russian Government). Finally, he also accuses them of widespread abuse of the regular soldiers of the Russian army. It should be noted that Prigozhin hedges his bet in this regard, claiming that he’ll return to Ukraine and deal with them once he’s sorted out the corruption in Moscow.
– In response, the Ministry of Defense and the FSB (Russian internal security) issue a warrant for Prigozhin’s arrest, accusing him of inciting an armed insurrection, a crime which carries a penalty of 20 years.
– Wagner forces cross the border and begin moving towards the City of Rostov-on-Don, the primary logistics hub supporting the invading forces of Ukraine.
– The Ministry of Defense activates its Fortress emergency plans, moving troops into Moscow and Saint Petersburg while also ordering its forces to blockade the City of Rostov-on-Don. FSB and Rosgvardiya (national guard) forces are activated and moved into position. Troop concentrations are focused on Moscow
– Numerous Russian army forces begin to post their support of Prigozhin’s actions
– Border guards stand down, allowing the Wagner convoy through the border.
– Speculation about whether the massive Wagner convoys are real take to the internet. However, during the early light of dawn on June 24th, Wagner forces enter Rostov-on-Don and seize it unopposed. They successfully occupy the Ministry of Defense HQ in the city.
– Wagner bases in Russia are placed under siege by forces loyal to the Ministry of Defense.
– Prigozhin is seen in Rostov-on-Don, talking with the Deputy Commander of the Ministry of Defense (it is unclear whether as a prisoner or as a participant in the rebellion). He continues to make inflammatory remarks, with the new demands of subjecting Shoigu and Gerasimov to the firing squad. He also states that Wagner will kill anyone who stands in their way and that anyone opposed to them will be considered a traitor.
– Putin remains conspicuously absent during this time, maintaining absolute silence, while Gerasimov also goes silent, leaving Shoigu and the leader of the Communist Party of Russia as the voices most clearly denouncing Prigozhin. Speculation begins to emerge wondering if Putin is dead.
– The first confirmed instances of conflict take place as Wagner troops shoot down several Ministry of Defense Helicopters and a transport plane, while several Wagner vehicles are destroyed.
– Wagner forces begin their march towards Moscow.
– A number of regiments and brigades explicitly defect to Prigozhin’s cause. Prigozhin claims that half the Russian Army is in support of him.
– Wagner forces reach the half way mark to Moscow, Voronezh. Some initial exchanges of gunfire occur, indicating that the region is torn between Wagner forces and the Ministry of Defense.
– Alexander Lukashenko’s personal presidential jet is seen flying to Turkiye before its transponder is deactivated. This indicates that conflict may be spreading into Belarus as well.
– Putin at last appears on television and declares that he is fully in support of Shoigu and Gerasimov. He calls Prigozhin a traitor and orders all forces of the Russian Federation to eliminate Prigozhin and Wagner.
Wagner, which until this point had not made any statements against Putin, came out and said bluntly:
“Putin made the wrong choice. This is worse for him. Soon we will have a new president.”
Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of the Chechen Army, one of the few armies currently uncommitted to frontline combat in Ukraine, declares his loyalty to Putin and intention to intervene. His forces are believed to currently be stationed in the region around Belgorod.
– An increase of private jet flights from Russia to Turkiye is noted, indicating that Russian oligarchs are fleeing en-masse.
Analysis
What we’re seeing here is the interesting result of several trends. The first is that Putin’s Russia has failed to ideologically impress its population, and this is often necessitated by its attempt to appeal to both right and left contrarians. Secondly, the most important element of internal resistance to Putin’s regime is not actually even found in people who are against the Ukrainian War or in any way ideologically inclined to the west, and this internal resistance is the Soldiers’ Rights Movement. Essentially, when a large part of the population got mobilized, they were very quickly exposed to extremely poor conditions, ranging from inadequate equipment to miserable housing to rotten or barely supplied provisions. And this is before considering the all too common and outdated Soviet battlefield tactics employed by their commanders. Thus, these mobiks and their families were set against the Ministry of Defense, even while not being anti-war. And it is this part of the population that forms one of the two major parties that Prigozhin is appealing to when he calls out soldier abuses. Of course, Wagner has had its own large number of soldier abuses (specifically with its convict soldiers), but that’s perhaps not something that is popularized among the general population of Russia. The third is that the Russian elites are increasingly anti-war themselves, with many quietly favoring replacing Putin, although this obviously isn’t said out loud. Thus, the Prigozhin position of breaking the stalemate in Ukraine (by whatever means is not explained), is appealing to this set of oligarchs.
Now, there is something that must be said through all of this. A lot of people will be happy to see Putin go, and certainly for understandable reasons. This being said, we don’t know the potential outcome of this situation for Ukraine and for Russia. Prigozhin is, as has been stated previously, a shady character. And while we have no idea of what sort of political coalition is forming with his military allies, it is certain that it will favor a high degree of nationalism, obviously a potentially dangerous quantity in this war. It’s also potentially a far more potent force in creating an ideological Russian society, compared to the vague mythological empire that Putin’s ideology represents. This essentially presents a problem to Ukraine if the coup is executed quickly (a civil war, by contrast, also presents issues, but the focus of the civil war factions would not be on Ukraine).
Fundamentally, the most important part of Russia, West Russia, has been essentially divided in two at the moment with Putin’s loyalists in control of the North (including Russia’s two great centers of power, Moscow and St. Petersburg), while Prigozhin has command of the south.
Finally, there is the China factor to consider. While there is a centralized control with nuclear weapons, the explicit threat of a Chinese invasion is off the table. However, the commitment of Chinese troops to supporting one or the other party in a civil war (which is more likely than not), would have a very clear effect on the world. Now, that sort of commitment would probably come at the severe cost of party of Siberia (at least North Manchuria), however desperation could call for that.
And so that’s where we are at the moment. There’s a lot of unknown factors here and many ways it could go.
Conclusion:
If you would like reliable sources of information to follow this unfolding situation, I recommend the following sources:
Kotharian Lightning 